مدل تمایل موتورسیکلت‌سواران شاغل در محدوده مرکزی شهر تهران به خرید موتورسیکلت برقی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه حمل و نقل، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران

2 گروه حمل و نقل، دانشکده عمران، دانشگاه امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه در شهرهای بزرگ و پرجمعیتی مانند تهران، عدم محدودیت استفاده از موتورسیکلت بنزینی در کنار طرح­های محدود کننده تردد خودرو شخصی مانند طرح زوج و فرد باعث رشد استفاده از موتورسیکلت­ های بنزینی شده است. بر این اساس، استفاده از موتورسیکلت برقی برای کاهش مشکلات ناشی از موتورسیکلت­ های بنزینی مانند آلودگی هوا و آلودگی صوتی، در تهران مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. این مطالعه با کمک اطلاعات حاصل از مصاحبه با 503 موتورسیکلت ­سوار شاغل در محدوده مرکزی شهر تهران با هدف شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر تمایل موتورسیکلت ­سواران شاغل در محدوده مرکزی تهران به خرید موتورسیکلت برقی با اعطای تسهیلات مشخص در شرایط ممنوعیت تردد موتورسیکلت­های بنزینی در این محدوده انجام شده است. در این مطالعه با کمک مدل لوجیت دوگانه نقش متغیرهایی مانند خصوصیات سفر، خصوصیات موتورسیکلت، مشخصات اقتصادی-اجتماعی افراد و پندارهای افراد به استفاده از موتورسیکلت شناسایی شد. نتایج نشان می­دهد کسانی که به دلیل قیمت ارزان موتورسیکلت از آن استفاده می­ کنند، کسانی که مسافت زیادی در روز می ­پیمایند و آنان که موتورسیکلت قدیمی ­تری دارند، تمایل کمتری به استفاده از موتورسیکلت برقی دارند. در نهایت، پیشنهاداتی جهت کاربرد این مدل نیز ارائه شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing a Model to Predict the Gasoline Motorcycle Commuters' Willingness to Buy the Electric Motorcycles

نویسندگان [English]

  • Malihe Shojaee Zade 1
  • Meeghat Habibian 2
1 Transportation, Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Transportation, Civil Engineering Department, Amirkabir University of Technology
چکیده [English]

Nowadays, in most of the megalopolises such as Tehran, the lack of Transportation Demand Management (TDM) policies on Gasoline-fueled Motorcycles (GMs), in comparison to policies implemented on private cars such as odd-even scheme, have been considered effective in increasing GM usage and its undesirable consequences such as Air and Noise pollution. To cope with these issues, Electric Motorcycles (EMs) have been widely implemented and used in most developed and developing countries. The goal of this study is to identify effective factors on motorcyclists' willingness to purchase EMs in the case of a GM ban. A paper-based questionnaire has been used for data collection through a face-to-face survey with those motorcyclists whose work-places are located in the Central Business District (CBD) of Tehran which resulted in 503 samples. A binary logit model has been developed to examine the role of motorcycles' characteristics, socioeconomic characteristics, and motorcyclists' attitudes toward GM usage. The results revealed that those motorcyclists who have purchased their GM because of its cheaper price, those who drive their GM longer, and those who have older motorcycles are less willing to purchase EMs.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Electric motorcycle
  • Gasoline-fueled motorcycle
  • Transportation Demand Management (TDM)
  • Central Business District (CBD)
  • Binary logit model
[1] M. N. I. Ibrahim and N. K. Yakub, "Effect of restricting the operation of motorcycles users to day light period on RTAs: A case study of Jos, Nigeria", International Journal of Engineering and Technology, Vol. 4, No. 4, p.p. 180-183, 2014.
 [2]  A. Kumar, "Understanding the emerging role of motorcycles in African cities",  SSATP Discussion Paper, No. 13, p.p. 1-24, 2011.
[3] J. Pucher, Z. R. Peng, N. Mittal, Y. Zhu, and N. Korattyswaroopam, "Urban transport trends and policies in China and India: impacts of rapid economic growth," Transport Reviews, Vol. 27, p.p. 379-410, 2007.
[4] X. Zhu, " Motorcycle ban in guangzhou and two-wheeler issues in china," Presentation at World Bank Transforming Transportation Conference, Washington D.C., USA, 2011.
[5] H.-C. Lai, J.-S. Liu, D. Lee, and L.-S. Wang, "Design parameters study on the stability and perception of riding comfort of the electrical motorcycles under rider leaning," Mechatronics, Vol. 13, p.p. 49-76, 2003.
[6] Air quality control company. affiliated with Tehran municipality. Available at: http://air.tehran.ir/Default.aspx?tabid=562. Accessed Dec. 14, 2017.
[7] Mehr news agency. Available at: https://www.mehrnews.com/news/2356943. Accessed Dec. 14, 2017.
[8] Y.-C. Chiu and G.-H. Tzeng, "The market acceptance of electric motorcycles in Taiwan experience through a stated preference analysis," Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 4, p.p. 127-146, 1999.
[9] Jamejamonline new agency. Available at: https://www.jamejamonline.ir/online/164592711187347787. Accessed Dec. 14, 2017.
[10] H.-L. Chang and S.-C. Wu, "Exploring the vehicle dependence behind mode choice: Evidence of motorcycle dependence in Taipei," Transportation Research Part A: policy and practice, Vol. 42, p.p. 307-320, 2008.
[11] C.-F. Chen and W.-T. Lai, "The effects of rational and habitual factors on mode choice behaviors in a motorcycle-dependent region: Evidence from Taiwan," Transport Policy, Vol. 18, p.p. 711-718, 2011.
[12] J. X. Weinert, "The rise of electric two-wheelers in China: factors for their success and implications for the future", University of California, Davis, 2007.
[13] N. Sheng, X. Zhou, and Y. Zhou, "Environmental impact of electric motorcycles: Evidence from traffic noise assessment by a building-based data mining technique," Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 554, p.p. 73-82, 2016.
[14] D. Xingdong, X. Jianmin, and W. Bo, "Traffic countermeasures research for Guangzhou city in traffic mode transferring period after motorcycle forbidden ban effect", Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, Vol. 9, p.p. 145-150, 2009.
[15] A. H.-H. Yu and S. Pettersson, "Opportunities and threats for the electric two-wheelers in China," 10th ITS european congress, Helsinki, Finland, 2014.
[16] H. Afshin and V. Hoseini, "Technical, economic and executive assess to choose the best electric motorcycle according to Tehran condition (Fourth technical report-choosing electric motorcycle and its implementing strategies", Environmental office of traffic department of Tehran municipality, Vol. OE/93/01/01/1-4/04, 2014. (in Persian)
[17] C. R. Cherry, J. X. Weinert, and Y. Xinmiao, "Comparative environmental impacts of electric bikes in China," Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 14, p.p. 281-290, 2009.
[18] T. Gärling and K. W. Axhausen, "Introduction: Habitual travel choice," Transportation, Vol. 30, p.p. 1-11, 2003.
[19] D. Simons, P. Clarys, I. De Bourdeaudhuij, B. de Geus, C. Vandelanotte, and B. Deforche, "Why do young adults choose different transport modes? A focus group study," Transport Policy, Vol. 36, p.p. 151-159, 2014.
[20] W. L. Chee and J. L. Fernandez, "Factors that influence the choice of mode of transport in Penang: a preliminary analysis," Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 91, p.p. 120-127, 2013.
[21] I. K. Lai, Y. Liu, X. Sun, H. Zhang, and W. Xu, "Factors influencing the behavioural intention towards full electric vehicles: An empirical study in Macau," Sustainability, Vol. 7, p.p. 12564-12585, 2015.
[22] J. Levine and T. Morton, "The impact of automated transit, pedestrian, and bicycling facilities on urban travel patterns", Summary Report, 2015.
[23] A. B. Parsa and M. Habibian, "Understanding motorcyclists' behavior toward TDM policies in work tours,"Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting, Washington DC, United States, 2017.
[24] H. Afshin and V. Hoseini, "Technical, economic and executive assess to choose the best electric motorcycle according to Tehran condition (second technical report- Technical-economic assess to choose electric motorcycle and its charging infrastructure", Environmental Office of Traffic Department of Tehran Municipality, Vol. OE/93/01/01/1-4/02, 2014. (in Persian)
[25] O. Petrik, F. Moura and J. Abreu e Silva, "Measuring uncertainty in discrete choice travel demand forecasting models," Transportation Research and Technology, p.p. 3-20, 2016.
[26] G. De Jong, A. Daly, M. Pieters, S. Miller, R. Plasmeijer and F. Hofman, "Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: Literature review and new results for the Netherlands," Transportation, Vol. 34, p.p. 375-395, 2007.
[27] A. M. Freund and J. O. Ritter, "Midlife crisis: A debate," Gerontology, Vol. 55, p.p. 582-591, 2009.
[28] M. Soderbom, "Applied econometrics," Mans, University of Gothenburg, 2009.