This study separates the regional shoreline-change tendency from local positional uncertainty along Mal-Khalifeh–Chahak. Four shorelines derived from TM, ETM Plus, and OLI imagery acquired in 1993, 2002, 2013, and 2023 were analysed along 300 transects spaced at 50 m using NSM, EPR, LRR, and SCE. Erosion dominance was tested with an exact binomial test and moving-block bootstrap, while NSM–LRR concordance, transect-spacing sensitivity, and uncertainty propagation were assessed. Mean NSM, EPR, LRR, and SCE were −26.01 m, −0.87 m yr−1, −0.48 m yr−1, and 48.62 m, respectively. Under the NSM<−5 m threshold, 238 transects (79.3%) were erosional, with a spatial-dependence-aware 95% block-bootstrap interval of 67.7–89.0%. NSM and LRR were strongly correlated (Pearson r=0.958) and agreed in direction at 237 transects (79.0%); however, 60 transects (20.0%) had opposite directions. Twenty transects combined high SCE with |LRR|≤0.25 m yr−1, indicating substantial mobility without a persistent linear tendency. A nominal 15.85 m uncertainty per shoreline propagated to 22.42 m for NSM and 0.75 m yr−1 for EPR. Independent validation of the 2023 Landsat shoreline against a Google Earth shoreline dated 23 June 2023 produced a bias of +11.80 m, MAE of 14.68 m, and RMSE of 17.32 m across 280 transects; 95% of absolute offsets were below 30 m. The regional erosional tendency is therefore robust, whereas local interpretation requires tide-matched imagery and field data.