بررسی اثر ویژگی‌های راننده و وسیله نقلیه بر ریسک تصادفات عبور از چراغ قرمز

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

2 مرکز تحقیقات ایمنی کاربردی حمل و نقل جاده‌ای، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

3 دانشجوی دکترا، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

4 کارشناس ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

چکیده

عبور از چراغ قرمز یکی از شایع­ترین انواع تخلفات در تقاطعات چراغ­دار است که در آن وسایل ­نقلیه بدون توجه به چراغ از تقاطع عبور می­ کنند و ایمنی خود و سایر کاربران را در معرض خطر قرار می­ دهند. پژوهش حاضر به بررسی ویژگی­ های راننده و وسیله نقلیه که در ریسک وقوع تصادفات عبور از چراغ در کشور ایران مؤثر است می ­پردازد. روش مطالعه بر اساس مفهوم مواجهه شبه­ القایی و مدل رگرسیون لوجستیک برای 10 متغیر مستقل و یک متغیر وابسته­ ی دوگانه­ ی "وضعیت تقصیر راننده" در تصادف می ­باشد. جامعه­ ی آماری مورد استفاده شامل 12445 تصادف عبور از چراغ قرمز طی سال­های 1390 تا 1395 می ­باشد. نتایج نشان داد عوامل نوع وسیله نقلیه، بومی بودن، نوع گواهینامه و تحصیلات راننده بر ریسک مقصر بودن رانندگان در این نوع تصادفات تأثیر می­ گذارند. بر اساس مدل رگرسیون لوجستیک، وسایل­نقلیه کامیون و امدادی، غیربومی بودن رانندگان و گواهی نامه ­ی پایه 2 موجب افزایش ریسک مقصر بودن می ­شود، اما تحصیلات دانشگاهی رانندگان ریسک مقصر بودن آنان را کاهش می­ دهد. در انتها نیز بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده از مطالعه برخی اقدامات پیش­ گیرانه به­ منظور کاهش ریسک تصادفات عبور از چراغ پیشنهاد شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Driver and Vehicle Characteristics on the Risk of Red-Light Running Crashes

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Tavakoli Kashani 1 2
  • Saeideh Amirifar 3 2
  • Ali Mirhashemi 4 2
1 Associate professor, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate professor, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, Tehran, Iran
3 Ph.D. candidate, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, Tehran, Iran
4 Master's degree, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Red-light running is one of the prevalent sights at signalized intersections that vehicles pass without caring for the light. A red-light runner ventures not only his life but also the safety of other road users. This study aims to identify the driver and vehicle characteristics affecting red-light running crash occurrence risk at signalized intersections of Iran. The study's methodology was based on the quasi-induced exposure concept and logistic regression model for ten independent variables and one binary target variable of "driver status." The statistical population included 12445 red-light running crashes from 2012 to 2016. The results demonstrated that vehicle type, residence, license type, and education level affect drivers' fault status in these crashes. Based on the logistic regression model, truck and emergency vehicles, foreign drivers, and type 2 driving licenses increase the risk of drivers being at fault. However, the academic education level of drivers decreases at-fault risk. Finally, some countermeasures were suggested for reducing the risk of red-light running crashes.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Quasi-induced exposure
  • Logistic regression
  • Risk
  • Signalized intersections
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