کالیبراسیون خودکار مدل شبیه‌سازی آب‌های زیرزمینی (MODFLOW) با الگوریتم غیرقطعی SUFI-II

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران

2 دانشکده عمران، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

چکیده

شبیه‌سازی ریاضی سیستم منابع آب زیرزمینی یکی از ابزار‌های ضروری در مدیریت این منابع ارزشمند به‌حساب می‌آید و کالیبراسیون این مدل‌های شبیه‌ساز یکی از مراحل وقت‌گیر و پیچیده در این فرآیند است. کالیبراسیون خودکار که در سال‌های اخیر توسط محققان با الگوریتم‌های مختلفی توسعه داده شده‌است، یکی از روش‌های مؤثر در غلبه بر این مشکلات محاسباتی است. از طرف دیگر، کمبود داده‌های صحرایی از لحاظ زمانی و مکانی و پیچیدگی‌های هیدرولوژیکی و هیدروژئولوژیکی، عدم قطعیت‌های زیادی را به نتایج کالیبراسیون وارد می‌کند. الگوریتم SUFI-II یک روش کالیبراسیون خودکار مبتنی بر عدم قطعیت است که توانایی کالیبراسیون و تحلیل عدم قطعیت مدل‌های شبیه‌سازی عددی را دارد. در این مقاله، برای اولین بار، از این الگوریتم برای کالیبراسیون و تحلیل عدم قطعیت پارامترهای هیدرودینامیکی (هدایت هیدرولیکی و آبدهی ویژه) مدل MODFLOW استفاده شده‌است. نتایج اجرای مدل برای آب‌های زیرزمینی دشت اردبیل (شمال غربی ایران)، نشان دهنده قرار گرفتن به‌طور متوسط 62 درصد مقادیر مشاهداتی سطح ایستایی در محدوده بازه اطمینان 95 درصد است. درنهایت، با رویکرد پیشنهادی، مناسب‌ترین مقدار برای بازه پارامتر‌های هدایت هیدرولیکی و آبدهی ویژه تعیین شده‌است. همچنین کالیبراسیون مدل شبیه‌سازی آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از PEST نیز صورت گرفته است. مطابق نتایج، مقدار مجذور میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) در این حالت (3/37 =RMSE) بیشتر از مقدار به دست آمده از روش SUFI-II ( RMSE=1/86) است که نشان‌دهنده‌ی عملکرد بهتر الگوریتم SUFI-II نسبت به مدل PEST است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Automatic Calibration of Groundwater Simulation Model (MODFLOW) by Indeterministic SUFI-II Algorithm

نویسندگان [English]

  • fariborz masoumi 1
  • Saeid Najjar-Ghabel 2
  • Akbar Safarzadeh 1
1 Department of civil engineering, faculty of engineering, university of mohaghegh ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
2 Water Resources Engineering Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Tabriz University Tabriz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Mathematical simulation of groundwater resource systems is one of the essential tools in managing these valuable resources and calibration of the groundwater simulation models is the time-consuming, and complicated step of these systems. Automated calibration, developed in recent years by researchers with different algorithms, is one of the effective methods to overcome these computational problems. On the other hand, lack of field data in terms of time and space and the hydrological and hydrogeological complexities leads to many uncertainties in the calibration results. The SUFI-II algorithm is an uncertainty-based automatic calibration method that is capable of calibration and uncertainty analysis of numerical simulation models. In this paper, for the first time, this algorithm is used to calibrate and analyze the uncertainty of hydrodynamic parameters (hydraulic conductivity and specific yield) of the MODFLOW model. The results of model implementation for the Ardabil plain groundwater model (Northwestern Iran), indicate an average of 62 percent of the observation data within the 95 percent confidence interval. Finally, the best intervals of parameters are determined for the hydraulic conductivity and specific yield by the proposed approach. Also, the calibration of the groundwater model has been carried out using PEST. According to the results, the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) value in this case (RMSE = 3.37) is higher than the SUFI-II method (RMSE = 1.86), which indicates better performance of the SUFI-II algorithm than the PEST model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Automatic Calibration
  • MODFLOW
  • Uncertainty Analysis
  • SUFI-II Algorithm
  • Ardabil Plain Aquifer

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نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر
دوره 53، شماره 4
تیر 1400
صفحه 1507-1524

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