بررسی روند تغییرات زمانی- مکانی دما و بارش در حوضه آبریز طشک-بختگان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی محیط زیست-منابع آب، دانشکده محیط زیست، پردیس دانشکده های فنی، دانشگاه تهران.

2 سرپرست گروه آب های سطحی، موسسه تحقیقات آب

3 استاد، گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

4 مدیر پژوهشکده مطالعات و تحقیقات مناب آب،​موسسه تحقیقات آب

چکیده

یکی از چالش‌های جدی در عصر حاضر تغییر اقلیم و تأثیر آن بر منابع آب در دسترس است. در این راستا بررسی تغییرات زمانی و مکانی بارندگی و دما، به عنوان پارامترهای تأثیرگذار بر وضعیت منابع آب، می‌تواند در ارزیابی شرایط هیدروکلیماتولوژی حوضه و اتخاذ سیاست‌های مدیریتی مناسب باشد. در این تحقیق ابتدا روند زمانی بارش و دما سالانه حوضه آبریز طشک-بختگان در یک دوره آماری 30 ساله (2010-1981 )با استفاده از روش‌های آماری غیرپارامتریک من- کندال، اسپیرمن، شیب سن و پتی بررسی شد. سپس برای درک تفاوت مکانی این پارامترها در سطح حوضه از تکنیک‌های درونیابی عکس فاصله (IDW ،)چندجمله‌ای محلی (LPI ،)چندجمله‌ای جهانی (GPI )و روش تابع و روش تابع شعاعی(RBF )مختلف استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد بارندگی طی دوره 1981-2010 به میزان 14/3درصد کاهش و دما به میزان3/5 درصد افزایش داشته است که روند تغییرات برای بارش و دما به ترتیب در سال 2004 و 1985 اتفاق افتاده است. اما روند کاهش بارندگی در منطقه برخلاف افزایش دما معنی‌دار نیست. با این وجود، استفاده از روش کریجینگ برای بررسی تغییرات مکانی بارندگی و روش تابع شعاعی برای بررسی تغییرات مکانی دما در حوضه مورد مطالعه بدلیل کمترین خطای گزارش شده پیشنهاد می‌گردد. مقایسه تکنیک‌های درونیابی نیز نشان داد روش کریجینگ معمولی و توابع پایه شعاعی با حداقل خطا، بهترین روش برای تجزیه و تحلیل مکانی بارش و دما هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Tashk-Bakhtegan Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • somaye Imani 1
  • Ashkan Farokhnia 2
  • saeid morid 3
  • Reza Roozbahani 4
1 Department of environment engineering-water resources, faculty of environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran.
2 The Head of Surface Water Group, Water Research Institute
3 Professor, Water Resource Engineering Group, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
4 Head of Department of Water Resources Studies and Research
چکیده [English]

In the present era, climate change and its impact on available water resources are one of the main challenges. In this regard, temporal and spatial analysis of temperature and precipitation, which are important parameters in determining the status of water resources, can be used to assess the hydro-climatological conditions of the watershed and appropriate management policies. In this research, the trend in precipitation and temperature distribution over 30 years testing period of 1981-2010 was investigated using non-parametric tests such as Man-Kendal, Spearman, Sen’s Slope, and Pettit. Afterward, interpolation techniques, such as IDW, LPI, GPI and RBF were used to detect spatially trends at the watershed. The results showed that precipitation decreased by 14.3% during the period 1981-2010 and the temperature increased by 3.5%, with changes in precipitation and temperature occurring in 2004 and 1985, respectively. However, the negative trend in precipitation was not significant in contrast to the positive temperature trend during the study period. A comparative analysis of interpolation techniques shows that Ordinary Kriging and Radial Basis Functions with least error are the best methods for spatial analysis of precipitation and temperature, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Temporal and spatial trends
  • Precipitation
  • Temperature
  • Tashk-bakhtegan Watershed
  • Interpolation

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نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر
دوره 52، شماره 11
بهمن 1399
صفحه 2931-2944

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