بررسی توزیع غلظت آلاینده NOX خروجی از دودکش‌های نیروگاه منتظری اصفهان با استفاده از مدل ترکیبی WRF-CALPUFF

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشکده عمران آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در این پژوهش با استفاده از همبسته سازی مدل عددی هواشناسی WRF با مدل پراکنش آلودگی هوای CALPUFF به شبیه‌سازی توزیع غلظت آلاینده‌های هوای NOX خروجی از دودکش‌های نیروگاه منتظری اصفهان در دو بازه 20 روزه از فصل‌های سرد و گرم سال 2014 پرداخته شده و سپس با استفاده از آنالیز آماری توانایی مدل در شبیه‌سازی داده‌ها، مورد ارزیابی قرارگرفته است. نتایج شاخص‌های آماری به کاررفته در این پژوهش بر اساس معیارهای ارائه شده برای آ نها، حاکی از توانایی بالای مدل CALMET در شبیه‌سازی میدان سه بعدی هواشناسی موردنیاز مدل CALPUFF دارد. همچنین با توجه به معیارهای ارائه شده برای شاخص‌های آماری، نتایج این شاخص‌ها نشان از توافق قابل قبول بین داده‌های غلظت شبیه‌ساز یشده توسط مدل CALPUFF و داده‌های غلظت مشاهده‌ای ایستگاه‌های پایش آلودگی داشته‌اند؛ به‌طوریکه مقدار شاخص همبستگی پیرسون که ارتباط بین نتایج خروجی مدل و داده‌های اندازه گیری میدانی را نشان می‌دهد، برای آلاینده NO2 در بازه سرد سال در محدوده 0/706-0/892 و در بازه گرم سال در محدوده 934 / 0- 767 / 0 قرار دارد. همچنین مقدار شاخص FB در بازه سرد و گرم سال برای آلاینده NO2 به ترتیب در محدوده 165 / 0- 063 / 0 و 082 / 0- 022 / 0 قرار دارد. نتایج شاخص FB نشان دهند ه آن است که درمجموع مدل نتایج به دست آمده برای غلظت آلاینده NO2 را کمتر از مقدار واقعی پیش بینی کرده است که با توجه به در نظر نگرفتن غلظت پس زمینه این آلاینده در مجاورت نیروگاه، می‌توان به عملکرد منطقی مدل در پیش بینی غلظت آلاینده NO2 اشاره کرد. به طورکلی نتایج ارزیابی‌های آماری انجام گرفته در این پژوهش، نشان دهنده عملکرد قابل قبول مدل CALPUFF در پیش بینی غلظت آلاینده های موردنظر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The analysis on distribution of NOX pollutant concentration from exhaust flues in Shahid Montazeri Power Plant at Isfahan using combined WRF-CALPUFF model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Y. Rashidi 1
  • M. Rahimian 2
  • A. RashidiMehrabad 2
1 Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

by means of correlation of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model with air pollution dispersion model (CALPUFF) in this study, distribution of NOX air pollutant concentration from exhaust flues of Montazeri Power Plant at Isfahan was simulated in two intervals of 20 days during cold and warm seasons in 2014 and then the potential of the model was assessed in data simulation using statistical analysis. The results of statistical parameters used in this investigation, suggest good potential of California Meteorological (CALMET) model in simulation of 3-D meteorological field needed for CALPUFF model. Similarly, the results of statistical parameters indicate good agreement between simulated data by CALPUFF model and observed concentration data in pollution surveying stations so that the value of R-index for NO2 is placed within range (0.706-0.932) in cold year interval and in (0.567-0.804) during warm year interval. This shows high correlation between the observed data and simulated data. The value of FB index for NO2 is placed within ranges of (0.051-0.285) and (0.040-0.370) in cold and warm year intervals, respectively. The results of FB index indicate that the model given for the results of concentration of pollutants has generally forecast it below the actual level. Overall, the results of statistical assessments show good performance of CALPUFF model in forecasting of concentration for the given pollutants.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Air quality modeling
  • CALPUFF dispersion models
  • Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
  • statistical analysis

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نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر
دوره 51، شماره 2
خرداد و تیر 1398
صفحه 297-314

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