اولویت‌بندی ریسک‌ها و ارائه مدل مدیریت ریسک در توسعه نیروگاه‌های بادی براساس استاندارد مدیریت پروژه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی دریا، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران

2 مرکز تحقیقات سازه و زلزله، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران

3 مهندسی و مدیریت ساخت، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران

چکیده

نیروگاه‌های بادی به عنوان بخشی از پروژه‌های زیربنایی، نقش مهمی در توسعه اقتصادی-اجتماعی کشور دارند. با توجه به ضریب نفوذ بالای نیروگاه‌های بادی در شبکه‌های قدرت، لازم است تحلیل ریسک و در کنار آن مطالعات اقتصادی نیز انجام شود. در مقاله حاضر مدیریت ریسک پروژه مبنی بر فازهای مختلف پروژه‌های نیروگاهی با تأکید بر فاز ساختمان و نصب و با در نظرگیری مدیریت ریسک در پروژه‌های نیروگاهی ارائه شده است. بر این اساس با انجام مطالعه موردی در نیروگاه بادی منجیل ابتدا مهمترین ریسک‌های فاز ساختمان و نصب در این پروژه با در نظرگیری ریسک‌های مختلف قراردادی شناسا یی شده و سپس با ارائه مدل مدیریت ریسک به ارزیابی شدت اثر، احتمال کشف و احتمال وقوع ریسک‌ها و اثر آن بر روی اهداف اصلی پروژه مورد مطالعه یعنی زمان، کیفیت، هزینه و ایمنی پرداخته شده است. علاوه بر این مدلی جهت اولویت بندی ریسک‌های شناسا یی شده در این پروژه براساس نظرات گروهی و روش AHP ارائه گردیده و نتایج حاصله به دست آمده است. پس از تعیین اولویت ریسک‌های شناسایی شده برنامه‌های واکنش با پاسخ به ریسک‌های بحرانی و مهم ارائه شده و نتایج اقدامات واکنشی و بازنگری در برنامه مدیریت ریسک با ارائه پیشنهاداتی ثبت گردیده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Prioritizing Risks and Proposing a Risk Management Model in Wind Farms Developments According to Project Management Standard

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Saybani 1
  • F. HATAMI 2
  • H. Heravi 3
1 Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
3 Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

This article proposed project risk management model based on different project phases with emphasis on construction and installation phases and considering risk management in powerhouse projects. Accordingly, a case study on Manjil Wind Farm was conducted to firstly detect the most important risks of construction and installation phases in this project, considering different potential risks that identified and then, to propose the risk management model to evaluate the effect size, the possibility of diagnosis and risk incidence, and their impact on the main objectives of this project which are time, quality, expenses and security. Moreover, a model was proposed to prioritize the detected risks in this project based on group opinions and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, and the following results were gathered. After determining the detected risks priorities, react or response programs to critical and important risks were provided and the consequence of react or revision actions in risk management program were recorded with offering some comments.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Powerhouse projects
  • risk management model
  • project management standard
  • building phase and installation
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