مطالعه رژیم بارش و دبی حداکثر رواناب شهری در شرایط اقلیمی آینده (مطالعه موردی: حوضه سیل‌برگردان غرب)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده محیط زیست، پردیس دانشکده های فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

از جمله اثرات پدیده تغییر اقلیم، تغییر در رژیم هیدرولوژی و افزایش احتمال مواجهه با رخدادهای حداکثر می‌باشد. مقاله حاضر به بررسی رژیم (شدت و فراوانی) بارش و رواناب حداکثری تحت اثر تغییر اقلیم در حوضه سیل برگردان غرب تهران می‌پردازد و تغییرات رخ داده در دوره بازگشت‌های بارش و رواناب حدی حوضه را در دوره آینده ( 2080تا )2090با دوره پایه ( 1999تا )2000مقایسه می‌کند. بدین منظور خروجی مدل اقلیمی MRI-CGCM2.3.2aتحت سناریوی انتشار A1Bبه صورت نقطه‌ای (در مقیاس ایستگاهی) برداشت گردید و از روش عامل تغییر نیز جهت ریزمقیاس‌سازی و تولید سری زمانی بارش روزانه حوضه استفاده شد. سپس با استخراج داده‌های حداکثر بارش روزانه، مقدار بارش یک ساعته حوضه با دوره بازگشت 10سال محاسبه و از آنجا منحنی شدت - مدت - فراوانی بارش حوضه برای دوره پایه و نیز دوره آتی مورد بررسی حاصل گردید. در مرحله بعد مقادیر روزانه بارش به مدل بارش-رواناب SWMM وارد و سری زمانی روزانه رواناب خروجی از حوضه تولید شد. در انتها با استخراج توابع چگالی احتمال دبی حداکثر، به تحلیل تغییرات رژیم رواناب حوضه در دوره آتی نسبت به دوره پایه پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که شدت بارش‌های حدی در دوره زمانی آینده نسبت به دوره پایه اندکی کاهش می‌یابد. به علاوه نتایج نشان از افزایش دبی رواناب حوضه در افق 2090نسبت به دوره پایه دارد. با حرکت به سمت آینده، با افزایش فراوانی و احتمال رخداد یک مقدار مشخص از دبی رواناب در حوضه مواجه هستیم و برای یک دوره بازگشت مشخص نیز شدت جریان سیل شهری افزایش پیدا می‌کند. بنابراین به کارگیری اقداماتی جهت تطبیق با اثرات پدیده تغییر اقلیم در این حوضه ضروری به نظر می‌رسد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

A Study of Rainfall and Urban Runoff Flow Regime under Future Climate Condition (Case study: West Flood-Diversion Catchment in Tehran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • N. Binesh
  • M.H. Niksokhan
  • A. Sarang
School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Among the climate change impacts, changing hydrologic regime and increasing the probability of encountering extreme events are of the most important. This paper investigates extreme rainfall and runoff regime (intensity and frequency) under climate change impact in West Flood-Diversion (WFD) catchment in Tehran, and compares the changes in extreme rainfall and runoff return periods during future time period (2080-2090) with baseline period (1999-2000). To do this, the output of MRI-CGCM2.3.2a climate model under A1B emission scenario was extracted as a point (station scale) and change factor method was used for downscaling and producing daily rainfall time series. Afterwards by extracting extreme daily rainfall data, the value of 1-hour, 10-year rainfall of the catchment was calculated and then IDF curves of the catchment for base time period and also the future period were obtained. Finally by extracting PDFs of Maximum runoff, changes in catchment’s runoff regime in future period compared to baseline period were analyzed. The results showed that extreme rainfall intensity at future decreases a little compared to base time period. In addition the results are representative of enhancing catchment’s runoff discharges in 2090 time horizon compared to baseline period. By moving from baseline to the future, the catchment faces increasing in frequency and probability of a given amount of runoff discharge occurrence, and also for a given return period, urban flood flow-rate increases. Therefore employing measures for adaptation to climate change impacts in the catchment seems to be necessary.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Extreme rainfall
  • climate change
  • rainfall
  • return period
  • urban flooding
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