ارائه‌ی الگویی جهت پیش‌بینی میزان موفقیت پروژه‌های عمرانی با تلفیق تکنیک طراحی آزمایشات تاگوچی و تاکسونومی خاکستری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

2 دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشکده مدیریت )پردیس فارابی(، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

با گسترش روز افزون صنعت ساخت وساز و نیاز فزاینده جوامع به پروژه‌های عمرانی بزرگ، تعیین عوامل مؤثر در موفقیت این پروژه‌ها از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار است. با توجه به اینکه حوزه پژوهش در زمینه استفاده از نظریه سیستم خاکستری و تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره یک حوزه نسبتاً جدید است. در این تحقیق از تلفیق دو روش تاگوچی و تاکسونومی خاکستری به منظور پیش‌بینی میزان پیشرفت پروژه‌ها استفاده شده است. بدین منظور در ابتدا معیارهای مناسب در این زمینه تعیین و پس از جمع‌آوری اطلاعات با استفاده از روش تاگوچی خاکستری وزن مربوط به هر معیار تعیین شده است. از بین 17 معیار موثر بر پیشرفت پروژه‌های عمرانی، معیارهای تولید کارخانه‌ای، پرداخت‌های انجام شده توسط کارفرما و انواع اضافه‌کاری‌ها، اهمیت وزنی بیشتری را به خود اختصاص دادند. سپس با استفاده از روش تاکسونومی خاکستری، میزان پیشرفت پروژه‌های عمرانی پیش‌بینی شد. سازه‌های LSF که در این تحقیق با عنوان تولید کارخانه‌ای بیان شده به دلیل افزایش در سرعت انجام پروژه‌ها نقش مهمی در میزان پیشرفت پروژه‌ها دارد. درنهایت راهکارهای لازم در زمینه‌ی افزایش میزان پیشرفت پروژه به مدیران شرکت ارائه شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing a Model For Forecasting the Success of Construction Projects Integration Taguchi Design (DOE) And TAXONOMY

نویسندگان [English]

  • S. M. Zanjirchi 1
  • F. Aziz 2
  • M. Amani 3
1 Economic, Accounting & Management Faculty, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
2 Management & Accounting Faculty, Allameh Tabatabaee University, Tehran, Iran
3 Management Faculty, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The construction industry is the largest industry in the world. It is more of a service than a manufacturing industry. The success of construction projects is a fundamental issue for most governments, users and communities. Multi Criteria Decision Making is an approach that can be used to deal complex problems. In this paper, to treat multi criteria decision making problems in uncertain condition a model based on grey theory-including grey relational analysis and grey numbers is proposed. The scope of research about gray theory and multiple criteria decision making is relatively new field, so in this study we used the integration of Taguchi and Taxonomy with gray theory to forecasting the success of construction projects. Using Taguchi method and gray theory, weight of each criterion was determined. Finally, using Taxonomy and gray theory the success of thirteen construction projects was forecasted. Findings of this study provide clear understanding of constuction project and could potentially enhance existing knowledge of construction project success.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • construction projects
  • Success of construction projects
  • Gray Theory
  • Taguchi
  • TAXONOMY
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