تحلیل ریسک تاخیر پروژه‌‌های انبوه‌‌سازی مسکن با استفاده از یک روش بهبود یافته ترکیبی مبتنی بر شبکه بیزین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

پروژه‌های انبوه‌سازی مسکن به دلیل حجم بالای سرمایه‌گذاری و نقش کلیدی در توسعه، از اهمیت بالایی برخوردارند. با این حال، این پروژه‌ها با چالش‌های متعددی از جمله تاخیر در اجرا مواجه هستند. تاخیر در پروژه‌های انبوه‌سازی مسکن می‌تواند منجر به افزایش هزینه‌ها، نارضایتی مشتریان و از دست رفتن فرصت‌های اقتصادی شود. در این مقاله، به بررسی ریسک‌های تاخیر در پروژه‌های انبوه سازی مسکن با استفاده از روشی نوآورانه پرداخته شده است. این روش، ترکیبی از شبکه بیزین (BBNs)، مدلسازی ساختاری تفسیری (ISM) و آزمایش و ارزیابی تصمیم‌گیری (DEMATEL) است. این روش بر روی یکی از پروژه‌های انبوه سازی مسکن پرند به عنوان مطالعه موردی اعمال گردید که نتایج به دست آمده نشان داد که در این پروژه در حالت عادی احتمال شدت بالای تاخیر 68 درصد بوده است. از طرفی عوامل مرتبط با مسائل مالی و اقتصادی با احتمال شدت بالای وقوع 60 درصد رخ خواهند داد. همچنین تاخیر در پرداخت‌های انجام شده توسط مالک هم با احتمال وقوع 65 درصد، از جایگاه ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. تجربه ناکافی مشاور، انتخاب پیمانکاران نامناسب، در دست داشتن چند پروژه همزمان و سوء مدیریت سه عامل اثرگذار دیگر  هستند که با احتمال شدت متوسط وقوع بیش از 50 درصد اتفاق می‌افتند. از طرفی مدل ارائه شده، عوامل مرتبط با پیمانکار را که از منابع مهم تاخیر است، با احتمال شدت متوسط وقوع بیش از 40 درصد را نشان می‌دهد. همچنین عوامل مربوط به مشاور نیز باتوجه به نقش مهم آن، با احتمال شدت متوسط وقوع بیش از 40 درصد نشان داده شده‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Enhanced Bayesian Network Approach to Delay Risk Analysis in Mass Housing Construction

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Akbar Shirzadi Javid
  • Mohammad Hosein Madihi
  • Ehsan Nafari
Associate Professor, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology
چکیده [English]

Housing mass construction projects are vital for urban development but often face delays that lead to increased costs and missed opportunities. This study addresses delay risks using an integrated approach combining Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and the DEMATEL method. BBNs identify and model risk relationships, while the Ranked Node Method optimizes parametric analysis by reducing time and effort. ISM establishes risk hierarchies, and DEMATEL analyzes cause-and-effect relationships. Applied to a Parand mass housing project, the methodology revealed a 68% probability of significant delays, with financial and economic risks having a 60% likelihood. Payment delays by the owner showed a 65% probability, while factors like inexperienced consultants, unsuitable contractors, and mismanagement each had over 50% severity probabilities. Contractor- and consultant-related issues also contributed, each with average probabilities exceeding 40%. These findings highlight the importance of addressing financial inefficiencies and enhancing project management practices. The proposed method enhances delay risk modeling precision while minimizing required information, offering a practical and efficient solution for managing delays in mass housing projects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk Assessment
  • Delay
  • Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL)
  • Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM)
  • Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)
  • Housing Mass
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