نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران
3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Housing mass construction projects are vital for urban development but often face delays that lead to increased costs and missed opportunities. This study addresses delay risks using an integrated approach combining Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and the DEMATEL method. BBNs identify and model risk relationships, while the Ranked Node Method optimizes parametric analysis by reducing time and effort. ISM establishes risk hierarchies, and DEMATEL analyzes cause-and-effect relationships. Applied to a Parand mass housing project, the methodology revealed a 68% probability of significant delays, with financial and economic risks having a 60% likelihood. Payment delays by the owner showed a 65% probability, while factors like inexperienced consultants, unsuitable contractors, and mismanagement each had over 50% severity probabilities. Contractor- and consultant-related issues also contributed, each with average probabilities exceeding 40%. These findings highlight the importance of addressing financial inefficiencies and enhancing project management practices. The proposed method enhances delay risk modeling precision while minimizing required information, offering a practical and efficient solution for managing delays in mass housing projects.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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