ارزیابی راهکارهای سازگاری با تغییراقلیم و الگوی اقیانوسی (منطقه مورد مطالعه: حوزه آبریز گاوخونی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

2 موسسه تحقیقات آب، وزارت نیرو، تهران، ایران

چکیده

این مطالعه ارزیابی اثر تغییراقلیم و پدیده انسو را بر منابع آب حوزه آبریز گاوخونی مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. از دو مدل شبیه‌سازی اقلیمی CESM2 و IPSL-CM6A-LR برای شبیه‌سازی تغییراقلیم و پدیده النینو و لانینو به عنوان دو پدیده اقیانوسی استفاده شد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی اقلیمی برای دوره 2020 تا 2040 نشان داد که متوسط بارش در کل حوزه در حد 14 میلیمتر کاهش و متوسط دما 94/0 افزایش داشته است. بررسی شرایط آتی حوزه در شرایط توسعه حاکی از کسری 411 MCM منابع آب زیرزمینی است که در شرایط تغییراقلیم این کسری افزایش و تا 431 MCM می‌رسد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی در پدیده انسو نیز نشان داد که در رخداد النینو وضعیت منابع آب بهبود یافته و میزان کسری به 311 MCM و در رخداد لانینو به 481 MCM می‌رسد. میزان تاثیرگذاری النینو به عنوان یک پدیده اقیانوسی بصورت مثبت و لانینو و سناریوهای تغییراقلیم بصورت منفی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. میزان عدم قطعیت کسری منابع آب زیرزمینی در دو پدیده اقیانوسی حجمی بالغ بر 163 میلیون مترمکعب در سال و در سه سناریوی تغییراقلیم، 14 MCM شبیه‌سازی شد. 4 راهکار انتقال آب (S1)، کاهش بهره‌برداری از منابع آب زیرزمینی (S2)، افزایش بهره‌وری آب در بخش کشاورزی (S3) و افزایش راندمان کشاورزی (S4) در این شرایط مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که اگرچه انتقال آب و کاهش بهره‌برداری می‌تواند در بیلان منابع آب زیرزمینی تاثیر زیادی داشته باشد اما با توجه به ملاحظات محیط‌زیستی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی می‌توان از راهکارهای افزایش بهره‌وری و راندمان نتایج مناسبی را بدست آورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of adaptation solutions to climate change and ocean pattern (Study area: Gavkhoni watershed)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maziar Masoudian 1
  • Hamid Kardan Moghadam 2
  • Seyedeh Hoda Rahmati 1
1 Department of Environmental Engineering. Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Water Research Institute, Ministry of Energy Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

This study analyzed the effect of climate change and the Anso phenomenon on the water resources of the Gavakhuni catchment area. CESM2 and IPSL-CM6A-LR climate simulation models were used to simulate climate change and El Nino and La Nino phenomena as two oceanic phenomena. The results of the climate simulation for the period 2020 to 2040 showed that the average precipitation in the whole area has decreased by 14 mm and the average temperature has increased by 0.94. Examining the future conditions of the basin in terms of development indicates a deficit of 411 MCM of underground water resources, which will increase to 431 MCM in the conditions of climate change. The simulation results in the Enso phenomenon also showed that the situation of water resources improved in the El Nino event and the deficit reached 311 MCM and in the La Niño event it reached 481 MCM. The impact of El Niño as an oceanic phenomenon was evaluated positively and La Niño and climate change scenarios were evaluated negatively. The uncertainty of the deficit of underground water resources was simulated in two ocean phenomena with a volume of 163 million cubic meters per year and 14 MCM in three climate change scenarios. 4 solutions of water transfer (S1), reduction of exploitation of underground water resources (S2), increase of water productivity in the agricultural sector (S3) and increase of agricultural efficiency (S4) were evaluated in these conditions. The results showed that although the transfer of water and reduction of exploitation can have a great impact on the balance of underground water resources, according to the environmental, economic and social considerations, it is possible to obtain good results from the solutions to increase productivity and efficiency.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Gavkhoni Watershed
  • Uncertainty
  • Increasing Water Productivity
  • Efficiency

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نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر
دوره 56، شماره 7
1403
صفحه 909-930

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