پیش‌بینی دبی ورودی روزانه سد سفیدرود با الگوریتم‌های فراابتکاری ترکیبی با سیستم استنتاج عصبی فازی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 شرکت سهامی آب منطقه‌ای گیلان، ایران

2 گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

3 سازمان بهره‌برداری و نگهداری از سد و نیروگاه سفیدرود، ایران

چکیده

تخمین مقادیر دبی ورودی به سیستم منابع آبی یکی از اقدامات اساسی برای آگاهی از برنامه‌ریزی و تخصیص بهینه منابع آب به بخش‌های مختلف مصرف، در آینده است. در این مطالعه، از ترکیب الگوریتم‌های فراابتکاری شامل الگوریتم‌های فراابتکاری چرخه‌ی آب (WCA)، گرگ خاکستری (GOW)، وال (WOA)، الگوریتم شبکه عصبی (NNA) و ملخ (GOA) برای آموزش سیستم عصبی- فازی و به‌روزرسانی پارامترهای آن استفاده گردید و در نهایت بهترین مدل‌ها برای پیش‌بینی دبی ورودی روزانه سد مخزنی سفیدرود، توسعه داده شد. در مرحله آزمون، مدل ANFIS-WCA کمترین مقادیرSI ، MAE وNRMSE  به ترتیب برابر 0/0736، 0/5048 و 0/0736و  بیش‌ترین مقدار  برابر 0/9840را ارائه می‌کند که نشان‌دهنده برتری آن نسبت به سایر مدل‌ها است. بر اساس شاخص عملکرد جهانی (GPI)، مدلANFIS-WCA به عنوان بهترین مدل و پس از آن مدل‌هایANFIS-NNA ، ANFIS-GOA و ANFIS-WOA رتبه‌بندی شدند درحالی‌که بدترین دقت از طریق مدل ANFIS-GOA به دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل ANFIS-WCA با توجه به شاخص SI، 1/3 ٪ در مقایسه با ANFIS-NNA و 1/6 ٪ در مقایسه با ANFIS-GOA کاهش را نشان می دهد. علاوه بر این، بر اساسGPI ، مدل ANFIS-WCA تا 11 درصد در مقایسه با مدل ANFIS-ANN و 20 درصد در مقایسه با مدل ANFIS-GOA بهبود را نشان می‌دهد. دقت بالای مدل ANFIS-WCA در مقایسه با سایر مدل‌های هیبریدی نشان‌دهنده عملکرد الگوریتم چرخه آب برای فرار از بهینه محلی در ترکیب با مدل ANFIS و پیچیدگی دبی ورودی است،که قادر کرده این الگوریتم به ابزاری قدرتمند برای تخمین دبی ورودی سد سفیدرود تبدیل شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Extended Estimation of daily inflow of Sefidroud dam using meta-heuristic algorithms combined with fuzzy neural inference system

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hosein Hakimi Khansar 1
  • Javad Parsa 2
  • Omran Momeni Keleshteri 1
  • Noorbakhsh Karami 3
  • Moein Khoshdel sangdeh 1
1 PhD candidate, Department of Science and Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Department of Water Engineering, University of Tabriz, Iran
3 4- MSc in Construction Management, and Head of Sefidrood Dam and Powerhouse and Maintenance Department
چکیده [English]

Estimating water inflows to water resource systems is crucial for effective planning and optimal allocation of water resources across various consumption sectors. This study proposes a novel approach that combines Meta Heuristic algorithms, namely Water Cycle Algorithms (WCA), Gray Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), Neural Network Algorithm (NNA), and Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA), with a Neural-Fuzzy System for training and updating parameters. The objective is to develop accurate models for predicting the daily inflow of the Sefidroud reservoir dam. Unlike gradient-based algorithms, this method overcomes the challenges associated with training. The Autocorrelation Function and Correlation function were utilized to select four features: dam lake area, reservoir volume, reservoir level of the dam during the previous 7 days, and inflow in the previous day. Various statistical indicators were employed to evaluate the performance of the developed models. In the test stage, the ANFIS-WCA model demonstrated superior performance with the lowest values of SI (0.0736), MAE (0.05048),  NRMSE (0.0736), and the highest value of R2 (0.9840). Based on the GPI index, the ANFIS-WCA model was identified as the best model, followed by ANFIS-NNA, ANFIS-GOA, and ANFIS-WOA models. Conversely, the ANFIS-GOA model exhibited the least accuracy. The results indicated that the ANFIS-WCA model outperformed the ANFIS-NNA model by 31% in terms of SI, and the ANFIS-GOA model by 1.6% in terms of SI. Furthermore, the GPI index revealed an improvement of up to 11% compared to the ANFIS-ANN model, and 20% compared to the ANFIS-GOA model. The high accuracy of the ANFIS-WCA model, compared to other hybrid models, highlights the effectiveness of the water cycle algorithm in combination with the ANFIS model. This approach proves to be a powerful tool for estimating the input discharge of Sefidroud dam, as it successfully avoids local optima.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fuzzy-neural-adaptive inference system
  • inflow
  • Meta-heuristic algorithm
  • Sefidroud dam
  • Water cycle algorithm

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نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر
دوره 56، شماره 1
1403
صفحه 3-22

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