عملیاتی‌سازی تاب‌آوری اجتماعی برای سامانه‌های مدیریت ریسک سیلاب رودخانه‌ای در حوضه آبریز شهری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر (پلی‌‌تکنیک تهران)، تهران، ایران

چکیده

دیدگاه رایج در مدیریت سیلاب حوضه آبریز رودخانه‌ای (RBFM) بر افزایش امنیت سامانه‌های زهکشی در مواجهه با بارندگی‌های شدید تأکید دارد. وقوع سیل‌های اخیر در حوضه‌های آبریز شهری، توجه به رویکردی تاب‌آور که علاوه بر سطح ایمنی، به پیامدهای سیلاب نیز نظر دارد را ضروری می‌سازد. تاب‌آوری را می‌توان توانایی یک سامانه RBFM برای مقاومت در برابر بارش‌های مختلف، کاهش آسیب‌های ناشی از سیل و بازگشت به حالت عادی تعریف کرد. مطالعه حاضر، با هدف بهبود سامانه زهکشی شهر گنبدکاووس، چارچوبی سلسه مراتبی برای انتخاب گزینه‌های مدیریت سیلاب بر اساس شاخص‌های تاب‌آوری اجتماعی پیشنهاد می‌کند. در این مطالعه، با تمرکز بر جنبه‌های اجتماعی، تاب‌آوری به عنوان رفتار سامانه از منظر پاسخ و بازیابی در اثر رخدادهای مختلف بارندگی درنظر گرفته شده است. برای همین منظور، شاخص‌های پاسخ اجتماعی، توانایی بازیابی اجتماعی، نقطه مقاومت و نقطه هشدار برای عملیاتی کردن چارچوب پیشنهادی تعریف شده است. برای لحاظ کردن عدم‌قطعیت پارامترهای آسیب‌پذیری و جلوگیری از ناسازگاری ابعادی، سیستم به صورت فازی سلسله مراتبی توسعه یافت. استفاده از این رویکرد در حوضه آبریز رودخانه گرگانرود برای ارزیابی اثربخشی گزینه‌های مدیریت سیلاب از منظر تاب‌آوری نشان داد با لحاظ کردن شاخص‌های تاب‌آوری اجتماعی، گزینه‌های مؤثرتری نسبت به تصمیم‌گیری‌های سنتی قابل انتخاب است. مقایسه منحنی‌های پاسخ-بازیابی برای گزینه‌های مختلف مدیریتی نشان داد تعریف شاخص‌های مختلف تاب‌آوری به‌منظور تعیین رفتار سامانه RBFM پس از شکست عملکرد اهمیت زیادی دارد. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد می‌توان از شاخص‌های ارائه ‌شده به‌عنوان معیارهای انتخاب گزینه‌های متنوع مدیریتی بر اساس رفتار سامانه RBFM تحت رخدادهای بارندگی مختلف استفاده کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Operationalizing Social Resilience for Riverine Flood Risk Management in Urban Basins

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Kiaei
  • Mehdi Ahmadi
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology
چکیده [English]

The conventional approach to River Basin Flood Management (RBFM) primarily focuses on enhancing the structural integrity of drainage systems to mitigate the impacts of heavy rainfall events. However, recent floods in urban catchments have revealed the necessity for a more resilient approach that incorporates the consequences of flooding. Resilience in the context of RBFM refers to the system's ability to endure diverse precipitation events, minimize flood damage, and restore normal conditions. This research presents a framework for selecting flood management options within a hierarchical system, with a specific emphasis on social resilience indicators. The study defines resilience by examining the response and recovery behaviors of RBFM systems during varying rainfall events. To implement the framework, a set of indicators related to social response, social recovery capacity, resistance points, and warning points has been established. A hierarchical fuzzy system has been developed to quantify these indicators, accounting for uncertainties in social variables and addressing dimensional inconsistencies. Application of this approach in the Gorganrood River basin demonstrates the efficacy of selected flood risk management options in terms of resilience, as compared to conventional decision-making methods. Analyzing the response-recovery curves for different management options underscores the importance of delineating distinct resilience indicators to evaluate the behavior of RBFM systems following performance failures. The findings of this study suggest that the proposed indicators can serve as decision-making criteria for selecting management options based on the behavior of the river basin system under rainfall events with varying return periods.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • River basin flood management
  • resilience
  • social resilience indicators
  • hierarchical fuzzy system
  • flood risk management

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نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر
دوره 55، شماره 7
مهر 1402
صفحه 1505-1524

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