شبیه‌سازی عوامل تاخیر در پروژه‌های سدسازی با رویکرد پویایی سیستم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده مهندسی عمران، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

تاکنون تحقیقات زیادی در خصوص دلایل تاخیرات پروژه ­ها با روش سیستم پویا در حوزه­ های ساختمان، راه آهن، اتوبان و ... انجام شده ولیکن خلا تحقیقاتی در خصوص بررسی تاخیرات پروژه ­های سدسازی با روش سیستم پویا مشاهده می‌گردد. با توجه به اینکه عوامل تاثیرگذار فروانی می‌تواند در تاخیرات پروژه دخیل ­باشد لذا بررسی علل تاخیرات در این پروژه ­ها با استفاده از روش سیستم پویا و برنامه vensim بسیار ضروری می ­باشد. در این تحقیق مطالعه موردی سد مروک که در استان لرستان واقع شده است مورد بررسی قرار گرفت که بر اساس پیشینه تحقیقات قبلی و نیز تجارب اخذ شده از پروژه­ ها، 10 عامل تاخیر در پروژه ­ها جمع‌بندی و در قالب یک پرسشنامه به 20 نفر از خبرگان پروژه ­های سدسازی جهت نمره‌دهی از 1 تا 10 به عنوان شناسایی عوامل تاثیرگذار در تاخیرات پروژه سدسازی آورده شده است. بدیهی است میزان تاثیر هر عامل که باید توسط پرسشگر اعلام می ­گردید با ضریب 10 به عنوان تاثیرگذارترین و ضریب 1 به عنوان کم تاثیرترین درخواست گردیده بود. و از بین عوامل مختلف درگیر تاخیرات ٤ متغیر نیروی انسانی، ماشین آلات، منابع مالی پیمانکار و کمبود نقشه­ های فنی از بین آن‌ها توسط خبرگان توسط پرسش نامه ­های تهیه شده به عنوان تاثیرگذارترین عوامل انتخاب شدند. در ادامه با استفاده از برنامه شبیه‌سازی vensim و با استفاده از اطلاعات پروژه، مدل مذکور شبیه‌سازی گردید و نتایج شبیه‌سازی میزان تاخیر قابل پیش‌بینی کل پروژه و سهم هر یک از عوامل را مشخص نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of delay factors in dam construction projects with a system dynamics approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sina Fard Moradinia
  • Iraj Alimi
Assistant professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Delays are among the causes for financial loss in construction projects. Extensive research has thus been carried out on how to confront it, or reduce its consequences. The effect on dam construction projects is highly pronounced as a consequence of their high operation magnitude, and long initial execution duration. Numerous papers have thus far studied the causes of delay in projects from a dynamic systems’ approach, in such sectors as construction, railways and highways. However, a simple comprehensive exploration of literature on the study of construction delay through the dynamic systems method reveals a gap of research around dam construction. As this is the largest class of projects in the nation, numerous factors are involved in project delays. To investigate the causes of delay in these projects the Vensim software package has proven useful and imperative in carrying out dynamic system analyses. The present paper, involves a case study of the Marvak dam in Lorestan province. Based on previous studies and former practical experience in construction, a set of 10 common causes of delay was compiled into a questionnaire, for 20 dam construction experts who were asked to rate the causes from 1 to 10, depending on how much each factor actually causes delay in the project, with a rating of 1 and 10, signifying the highest, and lowest weight. Among the factors, the effect of four variables, namely human resources, machinery and equipment, financial resources of the contractor, and deficiency in technical blueprints, were selected as the most effective factors. The Vensim software package was then used to simulate the model based on project specifications. Results involved the project’s “overall predictable delay” with the share of each factor specified in a breakdown.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Project schedule management
  • Delays
  • System dynamics
  • Dam construction projects
  • Vensim

مراجع

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نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر
دوره 55، شماره 2
اردیبهشت 1402
صفحه 431-454

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