مدل عامل-مبنای سوخت‌گیری وسایل نقلیه‌ی شخصی با رویکرد مدیریت تقاضا و مقایسه‌ی نتایج آن با رجحان بیان ‌شده‌ی کاربران: مطالعه‌ی موردی کلان‌شهر تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران

2 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی(ره،) قزوین، ایران

چکیده

تقاضای روزافزون استفاده از خودروی شخصی در ترکیب با رشد نامتوازن و متراکم کاربری‌ها در شمال کلان­شهر تهران سبب گشته تا جایگاه‌های عرضه‌ی سوخت (پمپ ‌بنزین ­ها) همواره با صف تقاضا روبرو باشند. از طرفی قیمت گزاف زمین در این مناطق احداث جایگاه جدید را مقرون ‌به ‌صرفه نمی ­سازد. از این­ جهت، سیاست‌هایی از مدیریت تقاضا که افزایش هزینه استفاده از تسهیلات را در پی دارد به عنوان راهکاری جهت حل این قبیل از مشکلات است که تأثیرات آن در مقاله‌ی حاضر به روش عامل-مبنا بررسی ‌شده است. در این مقاله، داده کاربران پمپ‌ بنزین‌های شمال شهر تهران با روش رجحان بیان ‌شده جمع‌آوری و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار تحلیل آماری SPSS تحلیل گردید و از نتایج آن جهت تعریف خصوصیات عامل‌ها و قوانین تعاملی در نرم‌افزار شبیه‌سازی NetLogo استفاده شد. در ادامه وجود یک خط عبور سریع (با پنج سناریوی مختلف قیمت‌گذاری) در کنار یک خط معمولی شبیه‌سازی شد. نتایج نشان داد که اگر چه با اتکا به روش آماری مبتنی بر رجحان بیان ‌شده‌ تعدیل طول صف شلوغ متناسب با افزایش قیمت (سناریوهای ۴ و ۵) با استقبال بیشتری همراه است اما مدل عامل-مبنا نشان می دهد که محبوبیت سناریوهای ارزان‌ قیمت (سناریوهای ۱ و ۲) یعنی تعدیل طول صف شلوغ متناسب با کاهش تدریجی قیمت بر اساس رفتار تعاملی افراد بیشتر مورد توجه کاربران است. این موضوع نشان‌ دهنده آن است که پاسخ‌های روش رجحان بیان‌ شده در مواردی که رفتارهای تعاملی متوجه کاربران است نمی‌تواند مورد اطمینان باشد. همچنین با توجه به عدم توازن عرضه و تقاضای ناشی از بافت منطقه از قبیل در دسترس بودن زمین بدون کاربری مشخص و ملاحظه قیمت اراضی، ایجاد یک خط عبور-سریع قیمت­گذاری شده راهکاری موثر در تعدیل طول صف و کاهش زمان انتظار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Agent-Base Modeling of Refueling Vehicles based on Demand Management Approach and Comparing its Result with the Stated Preferences Method in Tehran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Ramezani 1
  • Hamid Mirzahossein 2
  • Amir Abbas Rassafi 2
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Transportation Planning, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
2 Department of Civil Engineering, Transportation Planning, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
چکیده [English]

The increasing demand for private cars and the unbalanced and dense growth of land-uses in the north of Tehran metropolis have caused fuel supply stations (gas stations) to face the demand queue most of the time. On the other hand, the exorbitant price of land in these areas does not make the construction of a new location cost-effective. Demand management policies such as increasing the cost of using the facility are the possible solution to solve such problems. In this paper, the gas station users' data in the north of Tehran were collected using the stated preference method and analyzed using SPSS statistical analysis software to define the agent features and build agent-based modeling. The survey results were used to define the characteristics of factors and interactive rules in the NetLogo simulation software. Then, the existence of a fast-passing line (with five different pricing scenarios) was simulated compared to the normal condition. The results showed that although the price increase scenarios (scenarios 4 and 5) are more welcome by relying on the statistically-based stated preference method, the agent-based simulation shows the popularity of cheap scenarios (scenarios 1 and 2) based on the interactive behavior of people are more valid. This indicates that the stated preference method's responses cannot be reassured in cases where interactive behaviors exist. Also, due to the imbalance of supply and demand due to the region's context, creating a tolled high-speed passing line is an effective solution to adjust the queue length and reduce waiting time.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Demand Management
  • Agent-Base Modeling
  • Refueling Queue
  • Stated Preference

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نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر
دوره 54، شماره 9
آذر 1401
صفحه 3411-3432

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