تدوین مدل‌های ارزیابی سطح ایمنی پروژه‌های ساختمانی به روش‌های رگرسیون چندمتغیره خطی و شبکه‌ی بیزین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده مهندسی عمران، پردیس دانشکده های دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

صنعت ساخت سهم عمده‌ای از صنعت را در کشورهای مختلف به خود اختصاص می‌دهد. نرخ حوادث، سوانح و تلفات در این بخش از صنعت، بسیار بیشتر از سایر صنایع گزارش شده است. ایمنی یکی از دغدغه‌های اصلی در صنعت ساخت است. از جمله بخش‌های پرخطر این صنعت، احداث ساختمان‌های بلندمرتبه است در این تحقیق تلاش شده است تا با ارزیابی سطح عوامل تأثیرگذار بر ایمنی پروژه، بتوان سطح ایمنی پروژه‌های آتی را بر پایه‌ی سوابق و اطلاعات پروژه‌های پیشین، پیش‌بینی نمود، چرا که با درک صحیح از میزان تأثیرگذاری عوامل بر ایمنی، می‌توان سیاست‌های لازم جهت بهبود ایمنی و کاهش صدمات این بخش از صنعت را پیش گرفت و مانع هدررفت منابع کشور شد. برای رسیدن به این هدف ابتدا، نه عامل تأثیرگذار بر ایمنی به کمک مطالعه ادبیات پیشین و مرور آمار غیررسمی حوادث ناشی از کار کشور، شناسایی شده است و در ادامه رابطه‌ی میان این عوامل و سطح ایمنی پروژه برای 95 پروژه واقع در شهر تهران و جزیره‌ی زیبای کیش که اطلاعات آن‌ها به کمک پرسش‌نامه جمع‌آوری گردیده، به کمک شبکه‌ی بیزین و رگرسیون خطی چندمتغیره، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در مدل‌سازی‌های پیشنهادی این تحقیق، میزان اثر هر یک از گروه‌های تأثیرگذار بر ایمنی پروژه، با کاوش در اطلاعات پروژه‌های مشابهِ پیشین، تعیین می‌شود. طبق نتایج این پژوهش، "نظارت و سرپرستی بر ایمنی پروسه‌های کاری" و "روند ایمن انجام کار"، از جمله‌ی تأثیرگذارترین عوامل بر سطح ایمنی پروژه‌های بلندمرتبه‌سازی با ضرائب رگرسیونی 0/338 و 0/264 می‌باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Development of Safety Level Assessment Models for Building Projects using Multiple Linear Regression and Bayesian Network

نویسنده [English]

  • Amirbahador Ketabi
School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The construction industry accounts for a large share of the industry in various countries. The rate of accidents and deaths in this industry is much higher than in other industries. Safety is a major concern in the construction industry. One of the most dangerous parts of the industry is the construction of high-rise buildings. In this research, an attempt has been made to evaluate the level of factors affecting the safety of the project, to be able to predict the level of safety of future projects based on the records and information of previous projects. Because with a correct understanding of the impact of factors on safety, it is possible to take the necessary policies to improve safety and reduce damage to this part of the industry and prevent the waste of resources. To achieve this purpose, first, the factors affecting safety have been identified by reviewing the literature and reviewing the unofficial statistics of work-related accidents, and then the relationship between these factors and the level of project safety for 95 projects in Tehran and Kish Island is developed. It was conducted with the help of a questionnaire, with the help of a Bayesian network and multiple linear regression. In the proposed model, the effect of each of the groups affecting the safety of the project is determined. “Monitoring and supervising the safety" and "safe process of doing work" are among the most influential factors on the safety level of high-rise building projects; regression coefficients were 0.338 and 0.264, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Construction industry
  • Building projects
  • Safety hazards
  • Safety risks
  • Project safety level
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