بهره‌برداری بهینه از مخازن با افزایش بهره‌وری آب: راهکار سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم آتی (مطالعه موردی: سد جره)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی جندی شاپور دزفول

چکیده

با توجه به اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آب، اتخاذ سیاست‌های سازگار با تغییر اقلیم به منظور کاهش معضلات اجتماعی-اقتصادی ناشی از آن و توسعه پایدار منابع آب، برای تصمیم سازان آب اجتناب ناپذیر خواهد بود. یکی از روش‌های سازگاری، افزایش بهره وری آب در پایین دست مخازن است که اثرات تغییر اقلیم شامل کاهش رواناب‌های ورودی به مخزن و افزایش نیاز آبی شبکه آبیاری را تعدیل خواهد کرد. در این مطالعه تأثیر بهره‌وری آب به ّه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. 15 سناریو عنوان راهکار سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم آتی در بهره برداری بهینه از مخزن سد جر تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از ریزمقیاس کردن خروجی مدل‌های CMIP5 برای دو دوره آتی نزدیک (2044-2020 )و دور       (2094-2070 )تولید شد. برپایه این سناریوها میزان رواناب ورودی به مخزن و نیاز آبی پایین دست برای هر دو دوره مدل سازی شد. یک مدل بهینه ساز با درنظرگرفتن پارامتر ضریب بهره‌وری به منظور تعریف چهار سناریوی بهره‌وری آب در پایین دست )صفر-1 S3-   ،S2- ، 0/3 و 0/5-S4 )توسعه داده شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که میزان جریان ورودی به مخزن تا 18/8 %کاهش و میزان تقاضای آب تا 29 %افزایش پیدا می‌کند. تخصیص آب به منظور جبران افزایش نیاز در دوره‌های آتی تا 18/7 %نسبت به دوره پایه تحت سناریو S1 افزایش پیدا می‌کند که ممکن است اعتماد پذیری سیستم مخزن در تخصیص آب را کاهش دهد. افزایش ضریب بهره‌وری آب تا0/5 در دوره آتی، اعتماد پذیری سیستم را تا 20 %افزایش می‌دهد که منجر به کاهش معضلات اجتماعی-اقتصادی ناشی از تغییر اقلیم در منطقه خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Optimal operation of reservoirs with increasing water use efficiency: Climate change adaptation approach (case study: Jareh Dam)

نویسندگان [English]

  • seyed majid mosavi
  • hesam seyed kaboli
Department of civil engineering, Jundi-Shapur university of Technology, Dezful
چکیده [English]

Impacts of climate change on water resources will force decision-makers to adopt climate change adaptation policies in order to reduce social-economic problems and difficulties resulting from it and water resource sustainable development. One of the adaptation methods is to increase water use efficiency in agriculture that will adjust climate change impacts include decreasing runoff and increasing water demands. In this study, the impact of water use efficiency as a climate change adaptation approach is assessed in the optimal operation of JAREH dam. Fifteen climate change scenarios were generated by using downscaling technique on CMIP5 data for the near (2020-2044) and far (2070-2094) future. Based on these scenarios, time series of reservoir inflow and downstream water demand were projected for both future periods. An optimization model is developed considering the water efficiency coefficient parameter in order to define four water use efficiency scenarios (0-S1, 0.1-S2, 0.3-S3, 0.5-S4). Results show that reservoir inflow decreases up to 18.8% and water agriculture demand increases up to 29%. The amount of water allocation would increase up to 18.7% in the future periods than in the baseline period under S1 scenario to supply the increased water demand, which may decrease reliability of reservoir system for water allocation. Increasing water use efficiency coefficient up to 0.5 in the future periods would increase system reliability up to 20% that will reduce social-economic problems caused by climate change impact in this study area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Efficiency Coefficient
  • Optimization
  • Climate Change
  • Reservoir
  • Adaptation

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نشریه مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر
دوره 52، شماره 12
اسفند 1399
صفحه 3043-3058

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