Evaluation of uncertainties in the existing empirical models and probabilistic prediction of liquefaction-induced lateral spreading

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Geotechnical Engineering Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology

2 Graduated Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Semnan University

Abstract

Soil liquefaction is known as one of the major causes of ground movement in earthquakes. Liquefaction
in slopes might be manifested in the ground surface by lateral spreading which is downward movement
of large soil blocks. Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading happens due to successive exceedence of
downward seismic stresses from the soil strength while the in-situ static driving stresses may never
surpass the deteriorated soil strength. Lateral spreading has caused extensive damage to buried utilities,
lifeline networks, and many other underground and surface civil engineering structures. It was reported
during some devastating earthquakes including San Francisco, USA 1906, in Prince William Sound,
Alaska 1964, Niigata, Japan 1964, and recently Bushehr, Iran 2013 earthquakes. Occurrence and
magnitude of lateral spreading depend on the geotechnical characteristics of the liquefiable soil layers,
geometry of the ground or the open-face slope, the depth of underground water table, the intensity and
duration of the earthquake excitation, the distance from the causative rupture, and site amplification
factor. Participation of a large number of factors in this sophisticated phenomenon has encouraged the
researchers to develop predictive empirical models (e.g., Hamada et al., 1986, Youd et al., 2002, and
Baziar and Ghorbani, 2005, Javadi et al. 2006, Kanibir 2003, and Baziar and Saeedi Azizkandi 2013).
The empirical models of Hamada et al. (1986) and Youd et al. (2002) are widely used in the engineering
practice.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

[1] Bardet, J. P.; Tobita, T.; Hu, J. and Mace, N.; "Database of Case Histories on Liquefaction-Induced Ground Deformation," A Report to PEER/PG&E, Task 4, Phase 2, Civil Engineering Department, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, 1999.
[2] Bardet, J. P.; Mace, N. and Tobita, T.; "Liquefaction- Induced Ground Deformation and Failure," A Report to PEER/PG&E, Task 4A, Phase 1, Civil Engineering Department, University of Southern California, Los Angeles. 1999.
[3] Youd, T. L. and Hoose, S. N.; "Liquefaction During 1906 San Francisco Earthquake," J. Geotech. Engrg. Div., ASCE, Vol. 102, No. 5, May, pp. 425–439, 1976.
[4] Youd, T. L.; Hansen, C. M. and Bartlett, S. F.; "Revised Multilinear Regression Equations for Prediction of Lateral Spread Displacement," J. Geotech Geoenviron Eng., Vol. 128, No. 12, pp. 1007–1017, 2002.
[5] Kanibir, A.; "Investigation of the Lateral Spreading at Sapanca and Suggestion of Empirical Relationships for Predicting Lateral Spreading," M.Sc. Thesis, Department of Geological Engineering, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey (in Turkish), 2003.
[6] Al–Bawwab, W. M. K.; "Probabilstic Assessment Of Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Ground Deformations," PhD Thesis, the Natural and Applied Sciences of Middle East Technical University, p. 125, 2005.
[7] Javadi, A. A.; Rezania, M. and Mousavi Nezhad, M.; "Evaluation of Liquefaction Induced Lateral Displacements Using Genetic Programming," J. Computers and Geotechnics, Vol. 33, pp. 222–233, 2006.
[8] Oommen, T. and Baise, L. G.; "Model Development and Validation for Intelligent Data Collection for Lateral Spread Displacements," Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, Vol. 24, No. 6, pp. 467–477, 2010.
[9] Seed, H. B. and Idriss, I. M.; "Ground Motions and Soil Liquefaction During Earthquakes," EERI, Berkeley, CA, p. 134, 1982.
[10] Scott, M.; Olson and Cora; Johnson, I.; "Analyzing Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Spreads using Strength Ratios," Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, Vol. 134, No. 8, pp. 1035–1049, 2008.
[11] Kramer, S. L.; "Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering. Upper Saddle River (NJ)," Prentice-Hall, 1996. 
[12] Baecher, G. B. and Christian, J. T.; "Reliability and Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering," New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons, 2003.
[13] Hamada, M.; Yasuda, S.; Isoyama, R. and Emoto, K.; "Study on Liquefaction Induced Permanent Ground Displacement," Report for the Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction, Japan, 1986. 
[14] Youd, T. L. and Perkins, D. M.; "Mapping of Liquefaction Severity Index," J. Geotech Eng., Vol. 113, No. 11, pp. 1374–1391, 1987.
[15] Bartlet, S. F. and Youd, T. L.; "Empirical Analysis of Horizontal Ground Displacement Generated by Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Spreads," Technical Report No. NCEER-91-0021, National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, State University of New York at Buffalo, NY, 1992.
[16] Bartlet, S. F. and Youd, T. L.; "Empirical Prediction of Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Spread," J. Geotech Eng. Div., Vol. 121, No. 4, pp. 316–329, 1995. 
[17] Baziar, M. H. and Ghorbani, A.; "Evaluation of Lateral Spreading Using Artificial Neural Networks," J. Soil Dyn Earthquake Eng., Vol. 25, pp. 1–9, 2005.
 
Amirkabir Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume 48, Issue 3
November 2016
Pages 275-290

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics