Evaluation of adaptation solutions to climate change and ocean pattern (Study area: Gavkhoni watershed)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Azad university

2 Department of Water resources studies and research, Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

This study analyzed the effect of climate change and the Anso phenomenon on the water resources of Gavakhuni catchment area. CESM2 and IPSL-CM6A-LR climate simulation models were used to simulate climate change and El Nino and La Nino phenomena as two oceanic phenomena. Examining the future conditions of the basin in terms of development indicates a deficit of 411 MCM of underground water resources, which will increase to 431 MCM in the conditions of climate change. The simulation results in the Enso phenomenon also showed that the situation of water resources improved during the El Niño event and the deficit reached 311 MCM and 481 MCM during the La Niño event. The impact of El Niño as an oceanic phenomenon was evaluated positively and La Niño and climate change scenarios were evaluated negatively. The uncertainty of the deficit of underground water resources was simulated in two ocean phenomena with a volume of 163 million cubic meters per year and 14 MCM in three climate change scenarios. 4 solutions for water transfer (S1), reducing the exploitation of underground water resources (S2), increasing water productivity in the agricultural sector (S3) and increasing agricultural efficiency (S4) were evaluated in these conditions. The results showed that although the transfer of water and reduction of exploitation can have a great impact on the balance of underground water resources, according to the environmental, economic and social considerations, it is possible to obtain good results from the solutions to increase productivity and efficiency.

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Amirkabir Journal of Civil Engineering

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 04 July 2024

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