Evaluation of adaptation solutions to climate change and ocean pattern (Study area: Gavkhoni watershed)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Department of Environmental Engineering. Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Water Research Institute, Ministry of Energy Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

This study analyzed the effect of climate change and the Anso phenomenon on the water resources of the Gavakhuni catchment area. CESM2 and IPSL-CM6A-LR climate simulation models were used to simulate climate change and El Nino and La Nino phenomena as two oceanic phenomena. The results of the climate simulation for the period 2020 to 2040 showed that the average precipitation in the whole area has decreased by 14 mm and the average temperature has increased by 0.94. Examining the future conditions of the basin in terms of development indicates a deficit of 411 MCM of underground water resources, which will increase to 431 MCM in the conditions of climate change. The simulation results in the Enso phenomenon also showed that the situation of water resources improved in the El Nino event and the deficit reached 311 MCM and in the La Niño event it reached 481 MCM. The impact of El Niño as an oceanic phenomenon was evaluated positively and La Niño and climate change scenarios were evaluated negatively. The uncertainty of the deficit of underground water resources was simulated in two ocean phenomena with a volume of 163 million cubic meters per year and 14 MCM in three climate change scenarios. 4 solutions of water transfer (S1), reduction of exploitation of underground water resources (S2), increase of water productivity in the agricultural sector (S3) and increase of agricultural efficiency (S4) were evaluated in these conditions. The results showed that although the transfer of water and reduction of exploitation can have a great impact on the balance of underground water resources, according to the environmental, economic and social considerations, it is possible to obtain good results from the solutions to increase productivity and efficiency.

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