Investigation and Prediction of Caspian Sea Significant Wave Height Using Chaos Theory

Document Type : Research Article


1 Professor, Civil Engineering Faculty, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Guilan University, Rasht, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Water Engineering Department, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

4 Ph.D. Candidate, Civil Engineering Faculty, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran


Significant wave height is mean of one third of the largest wave heights in a certain marine condition. Investigation and prediction of the significant wave height have been recently considered in marine system analysis including loadings over marine structures and sediment transport for designing, operation and marine researches. The capability of chaos theory in engineering particularly marine engineering has been gaining considerable interest in recent times. In this research, dynamic characteristics of the significant wave height time series in Caspian Sea at Anzali entrance are considered and the prediction has been performed using ideas gained from chaos theory. To reconstruct phase space, the time delay and embedding dimension are needed and for this purpose, autocorrelation function and algorithm of false nearest neighbors are used. Correlation dimension method is applied for investigating chaotic behavior of the significant wave height, which is the resultant of correlation dimensions, expresses chaotic behavior in the time series. Local prediction algorithm is used for time series prediction and results illustrate good and acceptable accuracy of chaos theory in quantitative prediction of seas significant wave height.


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