Amirkabir University of Technology Amirkabir Journal of Civil Engineering 2588-297X 48 3 2016 10 22 Evaluation of uncertainties in the existing empirical models and probabilistic prediction of liquefaction-induced lateral spreading Evaluation of uncertainties in the existing empirical models and probabilistic prediction of liquefaction-induced lateral spreading 275 290 674 10.22060/ceej.2016.674 FA Y. Jafarian Assistant Professor, Geotechnical Engineering Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology E. Nasri Graduated Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Semnan University Journal Article 2013 06 17 Soil liquefaction is known as one of the major causes of ground movement in earthquakes. Liquefaction in slopes might be manifested in the ground surface by lateral spreading which is downward movement of large soil blocks. Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading happens due to successive exceedence of downward seismic stresses from the soil strength while the in-situ static driving stresses may never surpass the deteriorated soil strength. Lateral spreading has caused extensive damage to buried utilities, lifeline networks, and many other underground and surface civil engineering structures. It was reported during some devastating earthquakes including San Francisco, USA 1906, in Prince William Sound, Alaska 1964, Niigata, Japan 1964, and recently Bushehr, Iran 2013 earthquakes. Occurrence and magnitude of lateral spreading depend on the geotechnical characteristics of the liquefiable soil layers, geometry of the ground or the open-face slope, the depth of underground water table, the intensity and duration of the earthquake excitation, the distance from the causative rupture, and site amplification factor. Participation of a large number of factors in this sophisticated phenomenon has encouraged the researchers to develop predictive empirical models (e.g., Hamada et al., 1986, Youd et al., 2002, and Baziar and Ghorbani, 2005, Javadi et al. 2006, Kanibir 2003, and Baziar and Saeedi Azizkandi 2013). The empirical models of Hamada et al. (1986) and Youd et al. (2002) are widely used in the engineering practice. Soil liquefaction is known as one of the major causes of ground movement in earthquakes. Liquefaction in slopes might be manifested in the ground surface by lateral spreading which is downward movement of large soil blocks. Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading happens due to successive exceedence of downward seismic stresses from the soil strength while the in-situ static driving stresses may never surpass the deteriorated soil strength. Lateral spreading has caused extensive damage to buried utilities, lifeline networks, and many other underground and surface civil engineering structures. It was reported during some devastating earthquakes including San Francisco, USA 1906, in Prince William Sound, Alaska 1964, Niigata, Japan 1964, and recently Bushehr, Iran 2013 earthquakes. Occurrence and magnitude of lateral spreading depend on the geotechnical characteristics of the liquefiable soil layers, geometry of the ground or the open-face slope, the depth of underground water table, the intensity and duration of the earthquake excitation, the distance from the causative rupture, and site amplification factor. Participation of a large number of factors in this sophisticated phenomenon has encouraged the researchers to develop predictive empirical models (e.g., Hamada et al., 1986, Youd et al., 2002, and Baziar and Ghorbani, 2005, Javadi et al. 2006, Kanibir 2003, and Baziar and Saeedi Azizkandi 2013). The empirical models of Hamada et al. (1986) and Youd et al. (2002) are widely used in the engineering practice.

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